Amber heat-health alerts issued across almost all of England as next heatwave begins

Amber heat-health alerts come into force across most of England on Tuesday as temperatures start to climb again at the beginning of the summer’s latest predicted heatwave.

The UK’s Health Security Agency (UKHSA) is warning that significant impacts are likely across health and social care, including a rise in deaths.

The amber alerts will remain in place until Friday evening, covering the high and potentially extreme temperatures expected throughout the week.

At the peak of the heatwave, temperatures across England and Wales are expected to widely reach the low to mid-30s Celsius.

Amber alerts are in place across all regions of England, apart from the North East, which has been issued a less severe yellow alert for the same period.

It comes after drought officials declared that 71.3% of England is now in drought.

How hot is it going to get?

It has been a remarkable summer so far.

Temperatures have remained above average for much of the summer. Even during the “cooler” spells, they have only fallen back to around the average for this time of year.

On Tuesday, the hottest weather will be around east Wales, the Midlands and central parts of southern England, where temperatures are expected to reach 27 to 30C (81-86F) – well within the heatwave temperature thresholds.

It will be slightly cooler in East Anglia, London and south-east England, where temperatures will range from 22 to 26C.

The predicted temperatures, which are expected to rise as the week progresses, have prompted the UKHSA to issue heat-health alerts.

While those aged over 65 or with underlying health conditions are most at risk, people in younger age groups may also be affected, with increased demand expected across health and social care.

The hot weather will intensify and become more widespread on Wednesday.

Across an area stretching from South Yorkshire to east Wales, Somerset and eastwards across England, temperatures will exceed 30C.

Some of the warmth will spread further north into northern England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, with temperatures reaching the low to mid-20s.

The hottest weather will be around the Midlands and south-east England, with temperatures of 31 to 33C.

By Thursday and Friday, extreme heat is most likely in parts of the Midlands, eastern and south-east England, where temperatures could reach as high as 35 or 36C.

As the heat builds throughout the week, overnight temperatures will remain relatively high, bringing some uncomfortable nights for sleeping.

Minimum temperatures may not fall below 16 to 18C across England and Wales.

There is also a possibility of a “tropical night” – when temperatures remain above 20C all night – in south-east England.

While the heat will not be quite as intense or feel as humid as the heatwaves in June and July, the BBC understands the Met Office may be considering issuing extreme heat warnings.

That would suggest that, as well as health impacts, there could be concerns about infrastructure such as the transport network and power lines.

The highest temperatures in June and July were 38C and 35.5C respectively.

For the first time in recorded history, we are expecting a temperature higher than 35C to have been recorded in the UK for four consecutive months – underlining that this has been a year like no other.

When will we get any rain?

On Monday afternoon, the National Drought Group announced that the East Midlands, Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire, Kent and East Sussex, and Solent and the South Downs were the latest areas to move into drought status.

This means that most of England – away from northern areas – is now in official drought, with 45 million people living in a drought area and more than 27 million facing water restrictions, according to the group.

The announcement comes with no rain in the forecast for most of this week across England and Wales.

We have to look towards Sunday, when there are some signs of rain moving into the UK from the Atlantic.

Low pressure, bringing rain-bearing weather fronts, will move across Wales and southern England, bringing a spell of rain for some.

While this does not currently look to be particularly heavy or persistent, it could bring the first bit of proper rain for many in nearly two months.

There could be a few showers at times across Scotland and Northern Ireland in the coming days, but these will be localised, with most areas staying dry.

Longer-range forecasts are always subject to change, but there may be a little more rain next week. However, the amount of rainfall in any particular location may still be highly variable.

Beyond that, high pressure and further dry conditions look set to dominate the final week of August.